XCWeek
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Forecast

World Cup forecast 2026/27

We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times: every World Cup race and Tour de Ski stage, with official points, each athlete's form, their technique strengths and how often they actually start.

Overall

  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo84%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen14%
  3. 3Gus Schumacher0.7%
  4. 4Davide Graz<1%
  5. 5Mattis Stenshagen<1%
  6. 6Andreas Fjorden Ree<1%
  7. 7Elia Barp<1%
  8. 8Ben Ogden<1%
  9. 9Lars Heggen<1%
  10. 10Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget–

Exp. points: Klæbo 2,484 · Amundsen 1,984 · Schumacher 1,264

Distance

  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo59%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen27%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget8.2%
  4. 4Andreas Fjorden Ree4%
  5. 5Mattis Stenshagen1.1%
  6. 6SKSavelii Korostelev<1%
  7. 7Gus Schumacher<1%
  8. 8Elia Barp<1%
  9. 9Davide Graz<1%
  10. 10Hugo Lapalus<1%

Sprint

  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo82%
  2. 2Even Northug3.8%
  3. 3Ben Ogden2.9%
  4. 4Jules Chappaz1.9%
  5. 5Lucas Chanavat1.6%
  6. 6Harald Østberg Amundsen1.6%
  7. 7Jiří Tuž0.8%
  8. 8Erik Valnes0.8%
  9. 9Edvin Anger0.8%
  10. 10Anton Grahn0.7%

World Championships Falun 2027: medal forecast

NationGoldMedals
  1. 1Norway7.316.7
  2. 2Sweden3.28.9
  3. 3Finland0.32.1
  4. 4Neutral athletes (AIN)0.20.9
  5. 5Germany0.21.3
  6. 6France0.21.2
  7. 7Austria0.10.6
  8. 8Italy0.11.0
  9. 9Switzerland0.10.9
  10. 10United States0.10.9
  11. 11Czechia0.10.5
  12. 12United Kingdom0.10.4
SprintFMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo76%
  2. Erik Valnes6.2%
  3. Edvin Anger2.9%
SprintFWomen
  1. Jonna Sundling36%
  2. Linn Svahn20%
  3. Kristine Stavås Skistad14%
SkiathlonMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo41%
  2. Harald Østberg Amundsen18%
  3. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget17%
SkiathlonWomen
  1. Heidi Weng33%
  2. Frida Karlsson14%
  3. Jonna Sundling12%
Interval startCWomen
  1. Heidi Weng24%
  2. Astrid Øyre Slind19%
  3. Frida Karlsson16%
Interval startCMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo42%
  2. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget20%
  3. Harald Østberg Amundsen11%
Team sprintCMen
  1. Norway84%
  2. Sweden5.2%
  3. France2.7%
Team sprintCWomen
  1. Sweden73%
  2. Norway17%
  3. Germany4.9%
RelayMen
  1. Norway85%
  2. Finland3.4%
  3. France2.5%
RelayWomen
  1. Norway57%
  2. Sweden36%
  3. Finland2.1%
Mass startFMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo37%
  2. Harald Østberg Amundsen21%
  3. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget16%
Mass startFWomen
  1. Heidi Weng33%
  2. Jonna Sundling15%
  3. Astrid Øyre Slind12%

Expected medals per nation from 10,000 simulations of every race. At most four starters per nation; relays use each nation's best four distance skiers, team sprints the best two sprinters.

Race forecasts

Nov 27 · Ruka · World CupCWomen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Heidi Weng22%
  2. 2Astrid Øyre Slind17%
  3. 3Frida Karlsson15%
Nov 27 · Ruka · World CupCMen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo35%
  2. 2Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget16%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen9%
Nov 28 · Ruka · World CupCWomen
Sprint · Classic
  1. 1Jonna Sundling35%
  2. 2Linn Svahn17%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad17%
Nov 28 · Ruka · World CupCMen
Sprint · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo71%
  2. 2Erik Valnes7.4%
  3. 3Even Northug2.7%
Nov 29 · Ruka · World CupFWomen
20 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng32%
  2. 2Jonna Sundling14%
  3. 3Astrid Øyre Slind11%
Nov 29 · Ruka · World CupFMen
20 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo29%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen17%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget13%
Dec 4 · Trondheim · World CupCWomen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Heidi Weng23%
  2. 2Astrid Øyre Slind17%
  3. 3Frida Karlsson15%
Dec 4 · Trondheim · World CupCMen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo35%
  2. 2Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget17%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen9.4%
Dec 5 · Trondheim · World CupFWomen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Jonna Sundling36%
  2. 2Linn Svahn19%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad13%
Dec 5 · Trondheim · World CupFMen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo73%
  2. 2Erik Valnes6%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen2.6%
Dec 6 · Trondheim · World CupWomen
20 km · Skiathlon · Classic/Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng31%
  2. 2Frida Karlsson12%
  3. 3Jonna Sundling12%
Dec 6 · Trondheim · World CupMen
20 km · Skiathlon · Classic/Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo34%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen16%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget14%
Dec 12 · Davos · World CupFWomen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Jonna Sundling36%
  2. 2Linn Svahn19%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad13%
Dec 12 · Davos · World CupFMen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo74%
  2. 2Erik Valnes6%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen2.4%
Dec 13 · Davos · World CupFWomen
5 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng32%
  2. 2Jonna Sundling14%
  3. 3Astrid Øyre Slind11%
Dec 13 · Davos · World CupFMen
5 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo29%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen17%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget13%

How good is the model?

190
Races
43%
Favourite
68%
Winner · top 3

Back-tested on 190 World Cup and championship races since 2024: the model's favourite won 43% of them and the winner was in its top three 68% of the time.

How it works

Every athlete has an XC Rating for distance and for sprint, built from every FIS result since 2015 like a chess rating: beat a higher-rated skier and you gain more. On top of that we track how each athlete performs in classic versus free technique and in interval versus mass starts. Races are then simulated 10,000 times.

XC Rating: world ranking →

Updated Oct 25, 2026