XCWeek
%
Forecast

World Cup forecast 2026/27

We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times: every World Cup race and Tour de Ski stage, with official points, each athlete's form, their technique strengths and how often they actually start.

Overall

  1. 1Moa Ilar34%
  2. 2Jonna Sundling21%
  3. 3Heidi Weng15%
  4. 4Maja Dahlqvist13%
  5. 5Frida Karlsson9.5%
  6. 6Nadja Kälin1.8%
  7. 7Anja Weber1.4%
  8. 8Astrid Øyre Slind1%
  9. 9Kateřina Janatová0.9%
  10. 10Emma Ribom0.6%

Exp. points: Ilar 1,694 · Sundling 1,585 · Weng 1,621

Distance

  1. 1Heidi Weng57%
  2. 2Frida Karlsson24%
  3. 3Astrid Øyre Slind8.1%
  4. 4Teresa Stadlober4.6%
  5. 5Moa Ilar2.1%
  6. 6Kristin Austgulen Fosnæs2%
  7. 7Ebba Andersson1.4%
  8. 8Nadja Kälin0.7%
  9. 9Karoline Simpson-Larsen<1%
  10. 10Jonna Sundling<1%

Sprint

  1. 1Maja Dahlqvist31%
  2. 2Johanna Hagström25%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad14%
  4. 4Jonna Sundling12%
  5. 5Linn Svahn8.9%
  6. 6Coletta Rydzek6.1%
  7. 7Moa Ilar1%
  8. 8Anja Weber0.6%
  9. 9Jasmi Joensuu0.5%
  10. 10Laura Gimmler<1%

World Championships Falun 2027: medal forecast

NationGoldMedals
  1. 1Norway7.517.3
  2. 2Sweden3.29.0
  3. 3Finland0.32.2
  4. 4Germany0.21.3
  5. 5France0.21.3
  6. 6Austria0.10.6
  7. 7Italy0.11.0
  8. 8Switzerland0.10.9
  9. 9United States0.10.9
  10. 10Czechia0.10.5
  11. 11United Kingdom0.10.4
  12. 12Canada0.00.3
SprintFMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo76%
  2. Erik Valnes6.3%
  3. Edvin Anger3.1%
SprintFWomen
  1. Jonna Sundling36%
  2. Linn Svahn20%
  3. Kristine Stavås Skistad14%
SkiathlonMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo43%
  2. Harald Østberg Amundsen19%
  3. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget17%
SkiathlonWomen
  1. Heidi Weng33%
  2. Frida Karlsson15%
  3. Jonna Sundling12%
Interval startCWomen
  1. Heidi Weng25%
  2. Astrid Øyre Slind19%
  3. Frida Karlsson16%
Interval startCMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo45%
  2. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget21%
  3. Harald Østberg Amundsen11%
Team sprintCMen
  1. Norway83%
  2. Sweden5.1%
  3. France2.8%
Team sprintCWomen
  1. Sweden73%
  2. Norway16%
  3. Germany4.8%
RelayMen
  1. Norway85%
  2. Finland3.8%
  3. France2.6%
RelayWomen
  1. Norway58%
  2. Sweden36%
  3. Finland2.2%
Mass startFMen
  1. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo39%
  2. Harald Østberg Amundsen22%
  3. Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget17%
Mass startFWomen
  1. Heidi Weng35%
  2. Jonna Sundling16%
  3. Astrid Øyre Slind11%

Expected medals per nation from 10,000 simulations of every race. At most four starters per nation; relays use each nation's best four distance skiers, team sprints the best two sprinters.

Race forecasts

Nov 27 · Ruka · World CupCWomen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Heidi Weng23%
  2. 2Astrid Øyre Slind17%
  3. 3Frida Karlsson15%
Nov 27 · Ruka · World CupCMen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo37%
  2. 2Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget18%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen9.4%
Nov 28 · Ruka · World CupCWomen
Sprint · Classic
  1. 1Jonna Sundling35%
  2. 2Linn Svahn17%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad17%
Nov 28 · Ruka · World CupCMen
Sprint · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo71%
  2. 2Erik Valnes7.4%
  3. 3Even Northug2.7%
Nov 29 · Ruka · World CupFWomen
20 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng32%
  2. 2Jonna Sundling15%
  3. 3Astrid Øyre Slind11%
Nov 29 · Ruka · World CupFMen
20 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo31%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen18%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget14%
Dec 4 · Trondheim · World CupCWomen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Heidi Weng23%
  2. 2Astrid Øyre Slind17%
  3. 3Frida Karlsson15%
Dec 4 · Trondheim · World CupCMen
10 km · Interval start · Classic
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo37%
  2. 2Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget18%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen9.9%
Dec 5 · Trondheim · World CupFWomen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Jonna Sundling36%
  2. 2Linn Svahn19%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad13%
Dec 5 · Trondheim · World CupFMen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo73%
  2. 2Erik Valnes6%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen2.6%
Dec 6 · Trondheim · World CupWomen
20 km · Skiathlon · Classic/Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng31%
  2. 2Frida Karlsson12%
  3. 3Jonna Sundling12%
Dec 6 · Trondheim · World CupMen
20 km · Skiathlon · Classic/Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo35%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen16%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget15%
Dec 12 · Davos · World CupFWomen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Jonna Sundling36%
  2. 2Linn Svahn19%
  3. 3Kristine Stavås Skistad13%
Dec 12 · Davos · World CupFMen
Sprint · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo74%
  2. 2Erik Valnes6%
  3. 3Harald Østberg Amundsen2.4%
Dec 13 · Davos · World CupFWomen
5 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Heidi Weng32%
  2. 2Jonna Sundling14%
  3. 3Astrid Øyre Slind11%
Dec 13 · Davos · World CupFMen
5 km · Mass start · Free
  1. 1Johannes Høsflot Klæbo31%
  2. 2Harald Østberg Amundsen18%
  3. 3Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget13%

How good is the model?

190
Races
43%
Favourite
68%
Winner · top 3

Back-tested on 190 World Cup and championship races since 2024: the model's favourite won 43% of them and the winner was in its top three 68% of the time.

How it works

Every athlete has an XC Rating for distance and for sprint, built from every FIS result since 2015 like a chess rating: beat a higher-rated skier and you gain more. On top of that we track how each athlete performs in classic versus free technique and in interval versus mass starts. Races are then simulated 10,000 times.

XC Rating: world ranking →

Updated Oct 24, 2026